2025 Pahalgam attack in India

[ColonelHardstone]

 

First and foremost, my condolences go out to the families and loved ones of all innocent civilians who tragically lost their lives. Noncombatant deaths are always a loss for humanity.

Meanwhile, the media in both India and Pakistan—amplified by their respective governments—are driving sharply divergent narratives.
In Pakistan, amidst intense political turmoil and military suppression, the dominant narrative is that this was a false flag operation orchestrated by the Indian government.
In contrast, Indian media immediately blamed the Pakistani military, escalating rhetoric and issuing threats of retaliation against the Pakistani state.

The Indian foreign office acted swiftly, taking five notable steps, the most significant being the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty—a move implying the potential cutting off of water supplies to Pakistan. But let’s assess the reality of this threat:

1. India lacks the capacity—both technically and geographically—to unilaterally stop Pakistan’s water. The treaty is underpinned by the World Bank, giving it international legal and political weight.

2. India is the upper riparian, meaning water flows from India to Pakistan. Any reckless attempt to divert or block this flow would set a dangerous precedent—one that China, the upper riparian for many of India’s rivers (originating from Tibet), could use against India in future disputes.

3. From a global optics perspective, a false flag operation would undermine India's own image, especially while U.S. Vice President JD Vance was visiting—a crucial time when India is seeking to attract international investment and finalize key trade deals.

So, who’s behind this incident?

To answer that, we must consider geography and strategic positioning. Based on known deployments and regional characteristics:

• The LoC (Pakistan-administered Kashmir) is too far north for this to have occurred from there.

• Indian Punjab and adjoining regions are heavily militarized, making infiltration highly improbable from the west.

• The Ladakh sector is ruled out due to extreme cold and terrain challenges.

That leaves Jammu, specifically its southern belt—a region with a significant Hindu population—as the likely area of infiltration. If that’s accurate, it raises a serious red flag for Indian security services, as it would indicate that militancy or insurgency is expanding beyond its traditional zones.

Will there be a War?

No sane person should ever wish for war. Innocent civilians on both sides of the border would suffer deeply due to the political brinkmanship of two narcissistic leaders—Narendra Modi and General Asim Munir.

That said, the Modi government has boxed itself into a corner with increasingly aggressive rhetoric and slogans like "Ghar mein ghus ke maarenge" (“We’ll enter their homes and strike”). This kind of bravado has raised expectations that cannot be easily managed.

From a conventional standpoint, India cannot engage in kinetic action against Pakistan without triggering serious consequences. Pakistan may be smaller and economically weaker, but that very imbalance means it has far less to lose—while India has everything to lose. Unfortunately, a segment of Indian society has come to view itself through a lens of hyper-masculinity and nationalism, disconnected from the strategic reality.

After the events of 2019—when Pakistan shot down an Indian jet and captured its pilot—any future provocation will undoubtedly be met with retaliation. With General Asim Munir’s popularity at an all-time low, he may feel compelled to respond even more aggressively than the previous leadership to salvage his position. That, in itself, is a dangerous motivator.

Escalation could spiral quickly, and Indian leadership is fully aware of this. The real danger lies in two leaders locked in a confrontation they can no longer control.

It’s important to clarify that the current leadership of Pakistan’s military may not be driven by Islamic or patriotic ideals, but the rank-and-file soldiers, airmen, and sailors remain highly trained, disciplined, and motivated.

For the people of Pakistan, it is time to accept the inevitability of an India-Pakistan conflict, not out of warmongering but as a call to vigilance. As the old Roman maxim says:
“Si vis pacem, para bellum” – If you want peace, prepare for war.

Until that moment comes, Pakistan must assure the international community that if India initiates kinetic action, the response will be irregular, asymmetric, and disproportionate—aimed not at escalation for its own sake, but to safeguard sovereignty and deter future aggression.

For now, the people and Government of Pakistan must drop the stupid and ridiculous conspiracy theories and act to avoid war by following International norms and standards.

We had our brothers telling us that 9/11 was a conspiracy and now we have Senior Deobandi Ulama confirming that 9/11 was done by Al-Qaeda and Taliban knew about it.

What is the future?

War is inevitable—and while India may be the one to initiate it, it will be the Muslims who bring it to a close. And by that, I do not mean the Muslims of Pakistan alone.

 

Edited 7 hours ago by ColonelHardstone